Actual or bogus shortage of Energy By Fahad Farooq
Actual or bogus shortage of Energy
The opportunists, while taking advantage of the closure of the patrol filing stations, if patrol will sell at their makeshift shops at the rate of Rs. 150 to Rs. 180 per liter illegally at various areas of the country. The most worst and illegal aspect that they sold the patrol in drums and gallons in a bid to provide ?maximum relief? to the local perturbed people, but in this alarming situation where countrywide terrorist attacks anyone can get benefit and any insurgency can happened. On the other hand, mass number of people suffered immense or deal due to paucity of patrol and CNG gas, as the shortage of patrol remained continued. Especially, the students of the both government and private educational institutions and thousands of the employees of different offices including industrial workers of the local industries are suffered great difficulties in their transportation as their transport vehicles remained stuck due to non-availability of CNG gas, diesel and patrol.
Meanwhile, the maximum patrol filling stations and pumps remained closed due to incompetency of management. It’s also reasoning for producing artificial shortage as their owners refused to sell the patrol and diesel on fresh reduced prices announced by the federal government, saying that the government was not providing them the patrol and diesel on the reduced prices. Therefore, they are not capable to sell POL products on the reduced prices. The main reason following this patrol rareness is stated to be that the owners of the patrol pumps kept their pumps closed, they argued that the patrol they have no supply and POL products are not available, that’s creating their artificial shortage of patrol through displaying the placards and banners. The people cursed the owners of the filling stations and government for critical situation. The dilemma is that is the poor masses are victim of this artificial shortage, as an agricultural land we have wheat crisis, sugar crisis, flour crisis, water crisis, these all crisis reasoning of poor management in all mentioned departments and ineligible and disqualified management who regularly put whole nation and system into crisis, actually might be these executives are part of mafia’s representatives.
Pakistan is energy-deficient, how can one assume a lively and flourishing human being squat on blood? Life is tough with no adequate blood in operation and in running and downward the veins, pumped by the heart round the clock. Pakistan has actually unsuccessful to hold its energy emergency; failing to boost up and proper regular supply proportionately and preserve demand.
Hagler Bailly, a worldwide management consulting firm with an office in Islamabad, caution in a 2006 study that Pakistan is going to witness gas deficiency starting in 2007, and the inequity will raise every year to cripple the economy by 2025, when shortage will be 11,092 MMCFD (Million standard cubic feet per day) against total 13,259 MMCFD production. The Hagler Bailly report added that Pakistan’s gas shortage would obtain greatly poorer in the next two decades if it did not administer any alternative sources. It emerge that we are considering the commencement of the crisis that HB predicted back in 2006.
Sudden increase in the supply of natural gas awarded the nation a breathing space, sharing weight of electricity and oil, merely to build future insecure as gas assets exhaust at speedy rate. Fire-fighting on the part of government turn into national policy, as a substitute of upbeat, long-term arrangement. This has contributed to circular debt trouble because of thoughtlessness political regime.
Enhance the Supply of Energy:
Let unaccompanied enhance the supply of energy, condition has deteriorate owed to deprived management, equipped and process with inefficiencies, power robbery, and line losses. This basically sums up the evils and real illness that country faces in its battle to reinstate sanity in energy area, which is now pushing the economy towards failure.
Power sector of Pakistan is measured to be under-developed, because of poor planning and ineligible management and, with unexploited potential for humungous increase. The origin of this crisis is energy productions and inventions which is in no way took place proportionately with the increasing demand and constructive economic escalation, with speedy increase taking place in Musharaf’s regime. No one can inform him concerning the deficit in the supply that would stimulate an energy emergency for coming regime(s).
Pakistan’s energy sector
Pakistan’s energy sector consists of following consumers: services, transport, industry, government, household etc. The major consumer is industry, accounting for around 58% of total consumption; it is followed by transport sector at 22% usage; and 15% is consumed by household, and rest with other sectors. This demonstrates that the energy crisis is disturbing the industrial system badly, and reason for harms for common masses. The utilization is shared by the combine of petroleum electricity, gas, coal, oil, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) sources. Gas supplies mainly with share of 43.7%, followed by oil at 29% and so on.
The economy is supposed to be in a ‘free ‘approaching economic crisis’, with the economy deteriorating, reasoning ‘countless desolation and losses’. Yet others caution of a ‘prolonged recession’ with a possibility of ‘panic capital outflows’. There are many, many more, which have been ratcheting up the disharmony that Pakistan’s economy is on the precipice of a cliff and just a nudge would tip it over into a deep abyss.
Pakistan’s economy has been attain at a height which is faraway underneath its implicit potential, or that its neighbours and other countries in the region are doing superior, is a fact which has been recognized by stern economists for a few years now. Even Sri Lanka and Bangladesh have improved economic increase rates evaluate to Pakistan, and more significantly, distinct Pakistan’s roller-coaster economy, countries in the region are locking in to stable states of economic increase.
Pakistan’s Economic Escalation Model:
Pakistan’s economic escalation model illustrate high of a few years, pursued by troughs the next few. For economists who having desire to comprehend Pakistan’s economy, an justification of why these tendencies endure and continued and why other countries don’t pursue these tendencies is an significant area of question.
Here is also acknowledgment between those Pakistani economists who are not engaged by the government, nor are apologist’s protectors for it, that the economy has not been supervised and tackle well in the past. To a large extent of the condemnation and analysis that has occurs in the media in the previous many years is warranted.
Actually nonexistence of an economic guidance, exposure and any long- or medium-term plan which has been consideration from side to side is the emphasize of the economic squad. It is reality that the economic squad has changed so a lot of epoch in fewer than four years is also a sign of the puzzlement and disorder between political leaders and the lack of main concern and meaningful attentions given to the economic troubles appearance by Pakistan. The drawback of this regime and economic experts of this regime to tackle economic matters and problems has been much acknowledged in the media and there is slight disparity over this assert.
Query is that whether Pakistan’s economy is in calamity, misshapes or in a free fall, is a totally different subject. While the broader picture do involve the present government’s position in generating the crisis, to argue that Pakistan’s economy is where it is on account of this government is to disregard many other aspects, and much of the criticism of this government only is a crumb of hypocritical.
Power disaster is contained in all main sectors:
Power disaster is contained in all main sectors of economy and influence value and standard of life of people at large. Economic sector is strongly hit as energy is essential for the smooth functioning of its different parts. Economic losses are sustained due to low productivity and cessation or non-function of activity in all sectors i-e industrial, transport, agriculture. Contemporary and existing economy of a country is integrated, and if one aspect is dislocated or gets weakened it troubles other essentials aspects. Lesser gross domestic profit (GDP) and increasing inflation can be endorsed to this on-going crisis.
Agriculture sector affected so badly, for the reason that output strongly or primarily depends on the performance of tube wells in majority districts and localities. Not only that, manufacture support of agricultural inputs like fertilizers and insect killer, pesticides is also in a weak position. So, improved and better power and energy production will enhance agricultural output and helpful in its efficient performance.
The overuse of the term ‘crisis’, and its other demonstration and manifestation, not simply detracts from actual discussion concerning the economy issue except, importantly, uncover the meaning of the term and de-legitimized it, how and when we use important thoughts critically.
Actually nobody imagine and accept that Pakistan’s economy is not in a crisis, nor on the edge of one at all. In reality it has serious problems, but a crisis is a much deeper affliction and misery. Greece’s economy is in a crisis, Britain’s or America’s is not. The latter both are under pressure with high and increasing unemployment, low growth, high debt just similar to Pakistan, but of course at a different level and of a much different nature but this is not a crisis. Pakistan’s economy passed through massive problems in 1998 subsequent the nuclear experiments for a lot of reasons but mainly due to the freezing of foreign accounts. But for the most part of its era and since existence, Pakistan has been jammed in a trap of poor performance, as more than the last few years. A crisis, by any imagination, would look far worse than the current economic indicator/ and gesture reveal.
Industrial sector represent another one of the most terrible victims of the calamity. It is bloody depiction of units being locked or function at very stumpy, lower level. An additional consequence for this sector is taking off of capital; not only foreign but also local investors are investing, for instance, in Bangladesh, moving textile units there. If this annoying issue is not answered without any delay, the industrial development might be jammed rather overturned completely, allowing foreigners to devastate and completely destroy local industry and innovation forever.
Unemployment is a natural consequence of the preceding consequences of energy crisis. Shutting down of units and layoffs create unemployment. Interesting inflation is also going up along with layoffs. Moreover, new employment opportunities are not being created due to falling investment in new schemes, somewhat due to fragile economy, corruption and terrible law and order situations. However, these economists’ experts and squad and lots of non-economists who know nothing about how the economy works but so far grasp onward have unobserved and without being seen several aspects which have prevented a alarming conditions from emerging.
Communal and psychological problems are also deriving from this crisis. Load shedding has led poor junta to take their annoyance and frustration to road, give a free rein to it on public and private property, creating some of the most terrible scenes of vulgarity. Since domestic supply of energy is erratic and as rare as gold, it hassles and stresses citizens out decreasing their productivity as workers and citizens.
Two speculative causes requiring a lot more precise analysis can merely point towards answering these questions. While ideas about the informal sector or the black or underground economy abound, there has been little research done on how Pakistan’s broad social and economic networks permit families and individuals to live in worlds which are often not on the economists’ map. Similarly, what has also not been analyzed in recent years is how payments and allowances have allowed several families to weather the storms created by the economists’ statistics of doom and gloom.
Many economists, even those who have been around for many decades, fail to understand how Pakistan’s economy really works, and why it continuously avoids any real crisis. They use a few select facts from the data to make their point, but this reveals only their own lack of understanding and ignorance about the actually existing economy.
Though the actions-repeated cries of ‘collapse and crises’ but at the present noise horribly boring, what would formulate for a more attractive and significant study and approach that why and how Pakistan handled to avoid an economic problem. The truth is, really, we don’t know enough.
In short, energy problem is a disease and virus that is poisoning many a sectors’ productivity and escalation, growing circular debt on government, and creating turmoil and chaos in the masses. The problem is two-fold: supply shortage and demand explosion. It is not just the government that is to be answerable, but the citizens as well. Nevertheless, its options have not been exhausted. As an alternative, there is variety of strategy choices accessible, even though time taking, which can finish this dilemma for many generations, if not for eternity.
Solutions to energy problems are not going to be ordinary, because the problem is not suggestions and particularly is its implementation can be very painful for the citizens and for not only the present regime but for the successors too. These are hard times, hard decisions require to be taken, or else this generation will conclude-up compromising its own, and for future, generation. The restructuring vary, initially, due to the time aspect involved in the completion of projects, furthermore according to the nature of energy resource, and, lastly depends on supply and demand sides of the problem.
Solutions have not been exhausted, in fact the opposite is true. Need of the hour is to instigate multiple strategic moves, instead of pining success in one huge-push. There are at least four kinds of energy sources identified, which are vast open spaces for development, including building new dams, exploiting Thar Coal, alternative energy, and importing cheaper energy sources to replace costly one.
As a substitute to furnace oil for production of electricity is coal. It can be imported. However, even if coal is imported now it will take time to fully operate as majority of plants on it. Furthermore, only those plants will be possible to be run on coal, those are close to the coast, transportation of coal too far off area may not be feasible and affordable at all.
Another short term solution to circular debt is substitute partially furnace oil by natural gas. We know that natural gas can be extracted by applying heavy pressure in fields. Availability of gas will take time. Moreover, exploiting gas from Thar Coal can be a great payoff, although it will take three or more years. The sooner the change takes place, the better it is in order to restore industrial and economic growth. Circular debt is expected to come down with recent increases in tariff. Citizens cannot be burdened any more. The multiple initiatives to reduce cost of electricity are the last resort to improve the situation.
It has always been the worst of times. There has been no energy roll-over prize in Pakistan. Economic development did pace-up in last decades, so did population growth rate and demand for energy, only supply of it failed to match the demand. This achievement has been accomplished with the help of poor planning, fire-fighting as an intellectual approach of short-term governments, lack of political spirit untapped resources, faulty fuel mix for electricity generation, and whole lot of other causes and its effects. Energy is a key requirement many sectors of Pakistan’s economy and society, therefore its crisis has cruel consequences for all these sectors. The main sources of energy need repair and overhaul, change of heart, and replacement with new resources such as indigenous gas, coal, and more reliance on futuristic alternative, sustainable energy resources which will get at least decade or two before becoming factual competitor to fossil fuels.
The reasons of the problem are versatile and accumulate over time. Reconstructing the energy sector means dismantling decades of poor planning and decision-making, which speaks of the complexity of the situation. However, the severity and harshness of the crisis can be a blessing in disguise, again it can and it wills forced the authorities and policy makers to adopt firm and tough decisions. Their prime opponent is their own lack of preparation.